Here, we can see that the Kelly Criterion tends to get out of the market and go to cash as the volatility increases during large drawdowns. F = Fraction of capital to invest in equities. Let gt = Xt / Xt − 1 be the gain obtained after the t -th bet. Share. 6) = 0. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. A 50% chance of a 50% drawdown is a lot to stomach. I like to break up the Kelly chart into four sections: Yellow: from Zero to 1/2 Kelly is the Conservative risk area. Putting these values into the Kelly formula gives a Kelly percentage of 20%. The criterion is known to economists and financial theorists by names such as the “geometric mean maximizing portfolio strategy”, maximizing logarithmic utility, the growth-optimal strategy, the capital growth criterion, etc. Betting > 1. Appreciation of the compelling properties of the Kelly criterion may have been impeded by certain misunderstandings about it that persist in the literature of mathematical economics. Kelly Criterion Calculator. Optimal f, as its known (a form of it) will produce the highest return, over time. It helps calculate the optimal amount one should place on a bet or an investment. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. The win probability (P) is calculated as the. The original Kelly criterion says to wager only if (bcdot p-q > 0) (the expected value is positive), and in this case to wager a fraction ( frac{bcdot p-q}{b} ) of your bankroll. It takes into account your win probability and the odds being offered by the sportsbook, and provides a recommendation for the optimal bet size based on your bankroll size. 3 and x is your resulting bankroll. Predicting a borrower’s probability of default is a key requirement of any credit allocation system but turning it into labeled classes leads to problems in performance measurement. Developed by a scientific researcher John Kelly Jr. Kelly put forward the Kelly formula while conducting research on the probabilistic errors in communications. — perhaps $5, $10, or $15 in this example. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. For obvious reason, you don’t want to bet in any game where the expected payout is 0 or negative. The famous coin-flipping exercise that many investors use to measure the performance of chance. On the other hand it is arguably. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. That means 55 (the percentage probability you think your bet will win) minus 45 (the percentage probability you think your bet will lose) will give you 10. In this paper, we provide a new approach to apply-ing the Kelly criterion to stock market investments. The Kelly Criterion: A mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. Since the result we have ultimately got is negative, this should indicate that it would be a better idea if we abstain from making such a stake simply because the odds are not high enough to compensate for. 33?1. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. 1 chance of winning -- kelly & net odds around 0. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. Say 100k capital. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Tim Byrnes, Tristan Barnett. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. 3: A New Interpretation of Information Rate. Kelly Criterion. Poker players have been stuck using outdated bankroll management techniques for decades, and I want to change that. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion, or Kelly strategy or Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. 40) / 1 = 0. By considering both absolute wealth and relative wealth between investors, we show that different investor behaviors survive in different environments. It takes into account your win probability and the odds being offered by the sportsbook, and provides a recommendation for the optimal bet size based on your bankroll size. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. Published 2011. " GitHub is where people build software. 02)/100 = 0. Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. Kelly criterion is a money management principle that beats any other approach in many respects. Keywords: Kelly criterion Optimal fraction KL-divergence 1 Introduction Financial trading is an interesting research issue to many experts and scholars. In the third event on the Belmont program, you find an angle play that has a 15 percent strike rate and 8-1 average winning odds. 19 probability the investment breaks even, and with 0. But that was not my point. Make your sports betting experience easier with our Kelly Criterion calculator, learn about the Kelly Criterion and how much you should wager to maximise your profits! Get Our. 1 – 1. 0 Kelly on even 1 bet reduces the growth rate of your capital while increasing risk of ruin. 00. d. The Kelly-optimal bet is a fine line based on a solid understanding of the probabilities and returns. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. Also, no betting strategy beats a continuous shuffle machine. In fact, the point is precisely not to do that, because maximizing expected wealth (somewhat paradoxically) leads to almost sure ruin. Calculate your probability. Mit einer Wette ist in diesem Zusammenhang das Riskieren eines Geldbetrages (Einsatz) gemeint, der im Gewinnfall mit einem festgelegten. If ever the target is to achieve a specific rate of return which is less than maximal, then the optimal bet size is said to be fractional Kelly. The only way a player can ever gain an edge over the casino in blackjack is through the use of basic strategy and card counting. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. 50 x 0. Kelly system betting provides an objective answer on how to make your bankroll grow as fast as possible. we choose our bet size so that our expected rate of capital growth is maximized. L. e. 2 e − 161In determining the Kelly criterion, a gambler needs to specify the probability pof placing a correct (i. 25 =25%. There can be other interpretations however. As discussed, that’s pretty much the case with 50/50 leagues, but not at all the case in heads-up leagues. 00 = 1. The NFL just doesn’t stop cooking up. Paul Samuelson, considered by many to be the greatest economist of the 20th century, believed the Kelly Criterion was wrong. This is Thorp’s equation 8. The Kelly Criterion is a staking method well known across wagering and investment professionals which should be known and considered by all Betfair punters. It is also helpful for gamblers as it determined the maximum amount. how much to bet; b is the net odds received on the wager (“b to 1″); in the example above, it would be 1. Share. The closer to 1 you get, the better. The strategy maximizes the entropy and with probability one outperforms any other strategy asymptotically [3]. The edge is simply the advantage you hold (or think you hold) over the actual bookmaker’s betting odds. 124 = 0. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. In general, the Kelly strategy gets an expected value of 100 ⋅ 1. Kelly ≠ Goal Kelly = Limit. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal amount to bet based on the edge you have over the sportsbook. Full Kelly has an interesting property: there is an X% chance of your bankroll dropping to X% of what you started with 5. As indicated by the formula, the optimal bet is determined by the formulaK= W - (1 - W)/R — where K is a percentage of the bettor's bankroll, W is the likelihood of a favorable return, and R is the. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. In this case, the Kelly criterion betting strategy suggests that if you wager over 20% of your bank continuously on 1, 2. Red: 1 Kelly to 2 Kelly is the Over-Aggressive risk area. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. 2. Kelly in 1956. Beachten Sie bitte, dass Sie das Komma sowohl bei der Wahrscheinlichkeit als auch. The Kelly Criterion How to Use the Kelly Criterion. 50. This is all the information we need in order to use the Kelly formula (p = 40% and r = 3). O. rr: float, reward to risk. This is where the Kelly formula comes into play: K = ( PxB – (1–P) ) / B. To simplify the analysis, however. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size to maximize profits on repeated investments. with constant bets. 00 x 0. No sane trader in options uses the Kelly criterion literally. The Kelly criterion was developed by John L. It is based on the mathematical formula k percent = bp–q/b, where p and q represent the probabilities of winning and losing, respectively, and. As a supplement to Part I, Part II, and Part III of the reviews of William Poundstone's book, Fortune's Formula, I thought I'd summarize the actual Kelly Formula and some "Kelly Math" here. B=2-1=1. Kelly's Criterion is well known among gamblers as a betting strategy (Rotando and Thorpe 1992; Browne and Whitt 1996; Thorpe 1997). You lose $100 if the dice shows up as a 4, 5 or 6. 2. I don't think the Kelly criterion is something most investors should consider for portfolio allocation. My confusion is how to apply the Kelly formula once the system goes live and I am making trades based on the system signals. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956. Given return of a portfolio or a single asset modeled as a continuous, but not necessarily gaussian, probability distribution, what's the Kelly criterion equation? I've heard that it's simply the the ratio of the sharpe ratio to the standard deviation. For a single commodity, the most critical skill is the position sizingconcerned with maximizing their wealth, using the Kelly criterion when sizing their portfolio positions makes perfect sense. J. the Kelly Criterion to the stock market. We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to the stock market. So if I have two simultaneous bets. If you check out Wikipedia or Investopedia, you’ll see formulas like this: f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1 f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1. Kelly came up with a betting system which optimizes bankroll growth based upon known odds and a definite payout. The calculator says to bet 2. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. 5 for long-term wagering. 70. Nicholas Yoder is a mathematician with twelve years of experience in derivatives trading and quantitative finance. Developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. zurück, der sie 1956 veröffentlichte. Understanding the Kelly Criterion. Unfortunately, the angle play finishes last and your bankroll now stands at $1,167. 66. 00 – 1) f* =0. In probability theory, the Kelly Criterion, also known as the scientific gambling method or the Kelly formula, Kelly strategy, or Kelly bet, is a mathematical formula for sizing bets or investments that lead to higher wealth compared to any other betting strategy in the long run. Sie geht auf den Wissenschaftler John Larry Kelly jr. This means if the Kelly Criterion advises a bet at 10% of your bankroll, if you’re using 1/2 Kelly it would be 5%, 1/4 2. q = (1 – 0. At the moment, I'm just doing a 15% fractional Kelly but wondering if anyone has spent much time tuning Kelly-based allocations. The point of “Kelly” bet sizing is to risk more when your probability of winning is higher and less when it’s lower. 50. The underlying principle entails gauging the edge over an event, subsequently calibrating the stake to. The Kelly criterion or Kelly strategy is a formula used to determine position sizing to maximize profits while minimizing losses. To associate your repository with the kelly-criterion topic, visit your repo's landing page and select "manage topics. Step - 3: For each possible outcome, calculate the ending bankroll for that outcome (starting bankroll plus all wins minus all losses). 40)-0. Orange: 1/2 Kelly to 1 Kelly is the Aggressive risk area. 40 - 1) 3 = 0. The basic formula for the Kelly Criterion is given by: -> f^* is the optimal fraction of the bankroll to bet; -> b is the net odds received on the wager (i. However, this probability depends on how often we play this game. If we win (with probability p , assuming we bet on heads) we’ll have S + x, and if we lose (with probability 1 − p ), we’ll have S − x. ket, must begin with a bet. In one study, [5] [6] each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. This paper presents a model to address the uncertainty inherent in replacement problems, whereby a firm must select between mutually exclusive projects of unequal lifespans by applying the Kelly criterion (which is not well known to the engineering economics community) within a binomial lattice option-pricing environment. The easiest is to say you’ll be using the Kelly Criterion for one year or the length of a sports. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. While it is tempting to try to run up a big bankroll simply by knowing about the sports and teams that you are wagering on, that strategy fails to take into account important factors such as bankroll management. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. A capable pilot, he survived a plane crash into the ocean. R: Number of streaks in the series. The formula is as follows: Where: K % = The. It emerged from statistical work done by John Kelly at Bell Laboratories in the 1950s. 4)/1 = 20% or 0. The Kelly Criterion is 6. With that in mind, Edward O. To calculate the “R,” divide the average. Abstract: Kelly's Criterion is well known among gamblers and investors as a method for maximizing the returns one would expect to observe over long periods of betting or investing. The author initiated the practical application of the Kelly criterion by using it for card counting in. In this case, the Kelly criterion betting strategy suggests that if you wager over 20% of your bank continuously on 1, 2. 70% of 1 = 0. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. The Kelly Criterion is defined as ( from Wikipedia ): For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds, the Kelly bet is: where: f * is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager, i. The goal was to figure out the best ways to manage signal-noise issues in long-distance telephone. Kelly Criterion • Developed by John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs – 1956 paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate” published in the Bell System Technical Journal • Original title “Information Theory and Gambling” – Used Information Theory to show how a gambler with inside information should bet Gaming Today is licensed and regulated to operate in AR, AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NH, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV & WY. To avoid complicated. It consists of kelly divided by max loss. Kelly stake percentage = Edge – 1 / Odds – 1. A Kelly portfolio maximizes the expected return of any given combination of assets in the long run, by maximizing the geometric growth rate of the wealth, which can be expressed by: g_{infty}(f^*) = frac{(mu - r)^2}{2sigma^2} + rThe Kelly Criterion is a statistical and mathematical formula that helps a punter estimate the maximum and minimum amount to give in a particular betting situation. The counterpart is the efficient market hypothesis. The performance of the model are hence studied as a function of the input capital state under the assumption that the latter belongs to the set of. There is a 60% chance of a winning a coin flip. The higher the volatility, the larger values. 50%. I agree that it is better to state this in terms of r = b + 1 instead of b. The famous Kelly betting criterion (Kelly, 1956), which maximizes a logarithmic utility function, is widely used to choose s. e. 505% of his bankroll, decreasing his bet size after. Despite the fact that Kelly's theory has been extended to most of the trading strategies used in financial markets, there is still a large gap between the theoretical. 2. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). For example, in the game we're playing, when you put up equal amounts of money, you want to bet (2p-1) of your bankroll, where p is your chance of winning (here, 55%. Add the odds quoted by the. The Kelly criterion has a number of. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. Hence, the Kelly criterion can be very risky in the short term. 2. Kelly suggests maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of our money, so we want to maximize p. However, until recently application of the Kelly criterion to multivariate portfolios has seen little analysis. The standard kelly betting is 1. Suppose we have initial capital X 0 and we want to determine the optimal betting fraction f to invest each year in S&P 500 stocks. Kelly applied to Option Investing While stock investments are more free-form, many option investments have common ground with gambles: • fixed terms • a definite time horizon • a payoff settlement at expiration Hence with the proper statistics, we can use the Kelly criterion to determine optimal investment levels whileIn 1956, John Kelly formulated an optimal strategy, the so-called ‘Kelly criterion’, for bidding at each step of a favorable game when the odds and probability of winning are known. This guide explains how the Kelly Criterion works and why it’s so good for sports betting. The criterion was introduced with the purpose of. The kelly criterion is a theory that measures the long-term growth of capital. The Kelly criterion determines the risky asset allocation which leads to maximum expected logarithm of wealth (geometric expectation), which is different from expected wealth (expected value of the wealth i. 'winP' in the expected winning probability of this particular bet. The original Kelly paper was published in 1956 and called: "A New Interpretation of Information Rate". History. Kelly Criterion gambling is. So the Kelly criterion says to put 140% of your portfolio in stocks to maximize your likely long-term returns. 10-K Diver. Thorp used the Kelly Portfolio to produce 20%. It just so happens that, being a mathematician by training, he wrote up a detailed paper, The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting, and the. Does apply kelly now give better results? If kelly value is say 44k. To arrive at the final number, you first have to take a look at your last 50 trades. 5% win rate. The closer to 1 you get, the better. Currently i risk 2% of capital. Suppose player A wins b units for eve1Y unit wager. The Kelly strategy is a safe method and can be used as a general money management system for both betting and investing. The Kelly criterion can easily be extended to uneven payoff games. Kelly also gives you a 50+% chance of ending up a millionaire, and a 11% chance of ending up a billionaire! 1. , win size divided by loss size) PW = Probability of winning. 99 chance of winning (say this is a corporate bond) -- kelly around 0. 01. 00. edge2 edge2+σ2 = σ2 market σ2 market+σ2. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet when the expected returns are known. the Kelly Criterion to the stock market. Kelly developed the formula while working at the AT&T Bell Laboratory. Der Kelly Formel Rechner für Sportwetten hilft Ihnen dabei, einfach und bequem Ihre Einsätze und deren Verteilung zu berechnen. The Kelly criterion can easily be extended to uneven payoff games. Section 5 shows the results obtained from the application of the Kelly criterion on real data from Europeanstocksand,inparticular,toboththestaticanddynamic portfolio optimization case. 55)-0. The Kelly Criterion, fundamentally, computes the optimal stake or position size for a given event, hinging on four factors: the equity balance, expected return from a successful outcome, probability of success, and probability of failure. e. Most importantly the criterion gives motivation to decide between investments with identical expected value but different risk of default. While the criterion has its limitations, its core principles have found. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non. The Kelly Criterion. See moreKelly Criterion Calculator. To calculate the “R,” divide the average. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. Suppose we have initial capital X 0 and we want to determine the optimal betting fraction f to invest each year in S&P 500 stocks. Kelly Criterion (kCrit) = ((odds - 1) * (1 - winP)) / (odds - 1) 'odds' is the Decimal form of the American odds after conversion. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. 01, we need to borrow an additional 105,460 USD in order to increase our account size to 631,510. The more there are, the better. Profit-factor is a nice matrix for using as fractional-size. - According to the formula Kelly fraction = 0. forms of gambling, including sports betting. 38% = $53). was born in Corsicana, Texas on December 26, 1923. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. N 935 A Simple Example Of Non-unique Factorization in Integral Domains / According to the classical Kelly criterion, a bettor should bet a fraction of their bankroll equal to edge / odds, assuming edge > 0. However, until recently application of the Kelly criterion to multivariate portfolios has seen little analysis. Draw. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. a. Created in 1956 by John Kelly, a Bell Labs scientist, the Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing bets or investments from which the investor expects a positive return. The Kelly Criterion Calculator helps you decide what percentage of your bankroll to place on a group of sports bets. Hi, Just started out coding. The standard deviation about 20%. The Kelly Criterion, Part I, Basic Kelly Math. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. So which is the most OPTIMAL bet to make , that grows your bankroll the. Avg win 2300, avg loss 2000. if your max loss is 50%, optimal-f will be double kelly. In this case we bet about 9% of our money on each bet (slightly more for the higher implied. Betpoints: 1. This announced the discovery of favorable card counting systems for blackjack. A law of the theory of betting is that the optimal procedure is to bet proportionally to one's advantage, adjusted by variance. Let's take a user who also likes using the traditional 1X Kelly Criterion and has a gambling bankroll of $1,000. the Kelly Criterion to the stock market. at Bell Labs in 1956. 60 – 0. The origin of money management was studied by John Larry Kelly, Jr. In his post on the Kelly criterion, Zvi notes that full Kelly is only correct if you know your edge and can handle the swings. version" is mentioned in a few of the better introductory textbooks, and it is the subject of William Poundstone's excellent popular book Fortune's Formula. 00 (a 50% probability of success), but the bookmaker offers you 2. In one sense it is widely known: the basic "i. Thorp and others. In your example you have savings which will bring in some percentage no matter what. 52. The point of the Kelly criterion has never been to maximize expected wealth. at Bell Labs in 1956, the Kelly criterion formula has long been established to provide a potent equation to calculate the optimum level of risk for placing a bet in a probabilistic types game like sports betting or blackjack. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. I risk 2k. 05. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. Rechner und Wettwerkzeuge. While this formula is great, it still only. Betting fractional Kelly is actually far more common than full Kelly, in order to reduce the risk of ruin. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. Make your sports betting experience easier with our Kelly Criterion calculator, learn about the Kelly Criterion and how much you should wager to maximise your profits! Get Our FREE Betting Calculator App Enter the number of times you’ll place the sequence of wagers. 65) – 0. 6) = 0. , this formula helps investors and. In particular our account equity is 126,050 USD on a portfolio of 526,050, which means that the current leverage factor is 4. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B, where W is the win. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. From the framework described in Section 2, we know that the Kelly criterion k(p) is the optimal value of f. I have some questions: I aim to get 1/3 of the width of the strikes in premiums when I trade credit spreads. Kelly Criterion ruined many bankrolls especially of those who can't analyse the exact probabilty. More recently, Evstigneev et al. 01 e 89 2. This strategy is also used in investment management – Warren Buffet is. Kelly Criterion’s Relation to League Type. The outline of the remaining parts of the paper is as follows. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for the advantage gambler. [1] in 1956, who proposed the Kelly criterion to solve the bidding problem with imperfect information by communications errors. where: f∗ f ∗ is the optimal ratio of my total money that I should invest in an investment, b = 0. If the input symbols to a communication channel represent the outcomes of a chance event on which bets are available at odds consistent with their probabilities (i. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. Simultaneous kelly is done by taking the product of 1-kelly for all simultaneous wagers and then multiplying each kelly amount by that product. Therefore, it is best to use half or even a quarter Kelly. Nicholas joins Chris for a conversation on correctly sizing your investments using the Kelly Criterion,. The Kelly Criterion: Comparison with Expected Values. For the gambler/investor with average luck bankroll and a fixed bet size, the expected bankroll growth after one. The formula is: Kelly fraction = edge / odds. To emphasize this connection, we refer to this optimal allocation as the Kelly criterion henceforth. 6 ⋅ 1. This means the trades has made money on half of his trades. Parameters: win_p: float, probability of winning. In such cases, the betting odds is reward/risk. )It's also the form which most directly suggests how to derive the Kelly criterion, and therefore the situations in which it will/won't apply. THORP 922 A Simple Proof of Tychonofrs Theorem via Nets / PAUL R. 5. The Kelly Criterion is the brilliant summation of a betting strategy first discovered by Information Theorist John Kelly. So, if your bankroll was $500 you would bet $100 in this scenario. You get the only answer one can reasonably expect: if. The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula that calculates the amount you should bet when there is a difference between the “true” odds and the given odds. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. Um den Kelly Formel Rechner zu benutzen brauchen Sie nur die angebotene Quote und die Wahrscheinlichkeit in das Formular einzugeben. The benchmark for new traders to move on from paper trading is a win rate of 75% and a profit factor of 2, so an average win of say $1 and average loss of -$1. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. 켈리 자신도 1956년의 논문에서. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. After graduation, he worked in the oil industry. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each investment or bet. 38 percent Kelly bet, or $53 of your current bankroll ($1,220 x 4. 60) / 4 = 0.